Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abus Magomedov: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · June 27, 2026
Result
Abus Magomedov defeated Michal Oleksiejczuk by Submission in round 1 (03:25:00) at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres on June 27, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Abus Magomedov at only 47%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Michal Oleksiejczuk a 53% chance to beat Abus Magomedov (Abus Magomedov 47%).
The betting market prices Michal Oleksiejczuk at 50% (-112) and Abus Magomedov at 50% (-108), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Michal Oleksiejczuk than the bookmakers: 55% for Michal Oleksiejczuk against the market's 50%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Oleksiejczuk riding a winning streak and showcasing striking volume, he'll need to fend off Magomedov's takedown pressure to avoid being grounded and potentially breaking his rhythm.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 44%, KO/TKO 40%, submission 16%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%, over 1.5 rounds 75%, over 2.5 rounds 62%.
Key factors
- Oleksiejczuk striking volume advantage
- Magomedov takedown effectiveness
- Oleksiejczuk cardio advantage in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | Abus Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-8 | 5-3 |
| Age | 32 | 36 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 18 | 8 |
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