Tyrell Fortune vs Marcin Tybura: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026

Result

Tyrell Fortune defeated Marcin Tybura by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Tyrell Fortune as the favourite at 51%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tyrell Fortune a 51% chance to beat Marcin Tybura (Marcin Tybura 49%).

The betting market prices Tyrell Fortune at 55% (-138) and Marcin Tybura at 45% (+112), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Marcin Tybura than the bookmakers: 42% for Tyrell Fortune against the market's 55%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Fortune's knockout power clashes with Tybura's grappling prowess, as Tybura's solid defense and cardio may exploit Fortune's inexperience in high-pressure situations.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 42%, submission 6%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 52%.

Key factors

• Fortune's KO threat
• Tybura's grappling control
• Tybura's defensive metrics

Tale of the tape

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