Alessandro Costa vs Matt Schnell: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · June 6, 2026
Result
Alessandro Costa defeated Matt Schnell by KO/TKO in round 1 (02:28:00) at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alessandro Costa as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alessandro Costa a 65% chance to beat Matt Schnell (Matt Schnell 35%).
The betting market prices Alessandro Costa at 80% (-538) and Matt Schnell at 20% (+372), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Matt Schnell than the bookmakers: 55% for Alessandro Costa against the market's 80%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Costa's grappling acumen likely to stifle Schnell’s striking and his recent form providing momentum, expect an intriguing clash of styles as Costa aims to capitalize on Schnell's defensive lapses.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round catchweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 59%.
Key factors
- Costa grappling control advantage
- Costa striking volume edge
- Schnell experience could impact fight
Tale of the tape
| Alessandro Costa | Matt Schnell | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 7-9 |
| Age | 31 | 37 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 16 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.