Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · August 29, 2026
Result
Song Yadong defeated Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO in round 2 (1:48) at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Song Yadong at only 33%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Umar Nurmagomedov a 67% chance to beat Song Yadong (Song Yadong 33%).
The betting market prices Song Yadong at 18% (+421) and Umar Nurmagomedov at 82% (-631), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Song Yadong than the bookmakers: 40% for Song Yadong against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Nurmagomedov's elite grappling poised to ground Yadong's striking and recent victories fueling his momentum, this clash tests whether Yadong’s experience can withstand the relentless pressure.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 5-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 71%.
Key factors
- Yadong's experience could aid adjustments
- Nurmagomedov's grappling can control the fight
- Nurmagomedov's defense limits Yadong's strikes
Tale of the tape
| Song Yadong | Umar Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 8-2 |
| Age | 29 | 31 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 17 | 10 |
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