Paulo Costa vs Azamat Murzakanov: Result and Prediction
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026
Result
Azamat Murzakanov defeated Paulo Costa by KO/TKO in round 3 (1:23) at UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg on April 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Azamat Murzakanov as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Azamat Murzakanov a 60% chance to beat Paulo Costa (Paulo Costa 40%).
The betting market prices Paulo Costa at 35% (+175) and Azamat Murzakanov at 65% (-222), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Paulo Costa than the bookmakers: 41% for Paulo Costa against the market's 35%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Murzakanov's finishing ability and cardio edge may exploit Costa's defensive lapses, setting the stage for a potential knockout in this clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 43%, submission 10%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 63%.
Key factors
- Murzakanov's KO power
- Costa's defensive vulnerabilities
- Murzakanov's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Paulo Costa | Azamat Murzakanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-4 | 6-1 |
| Age | 35 | 38 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 12 | 7 |
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