Adrian Yanez vs Ricky Simon: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ricky Simon a 58% chance to beat Adrian Yanez (Adrian Yanez 42%).
The betting market prices Adrian Yanez at 40% (+139) and Ricky Simon at 60% (-173), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Yanez's striking volume clashing against Simon's elite grappling, this bout could transform into a battle of precise stand-up versus relentless ground control, defining their paths in the division.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 44%, KO/TKO 39%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%, over 1.5 rounds 75%, over 2.5 rounds 61%.
Key factors
- Yanez striking volume could overwhelm Simon
- Simon's grappling may control the fight pace
- Yanez's defense can counter Simon's takedowns
Tale of the tape
| Adrian Yanez | Ricky Simon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 10-6 |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 16 |
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