Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Ateba Gautier defeated Ozzy Diaz by KO/TKO in round 2 (1:10) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ateba Gautier as the favourite at 74%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ateba Gautier a 74% chance to beat Ozzy Diaz (Ozzy Diaz 26%).
The betting market prices Ozzy Diaz at 13% (+654) and Ateba Gautier at 87% (-1207), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ozzy Diaz than the bookmakers: 35% for Ozzy Diaz against the market's 13%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Gautier's striking accuracy and recent momentum clash with Diaz's elite cardio, making for a compelling battle where finish rates could dictate the outcome.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 59%, decision 33%, submission 7%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 33%.
Key factors
- Gautier's striking accuracy
- Diaz's elite cardio
- Gautier's recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Ozzy Diaz | Ateba Gautier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Age | 36 | 24 |
| Height | – | 6'4" (193 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 5 |
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