Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Tommy McMillen defeated Alberto Montes by KO/TKO in round 3 (3:29) at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tommy McMillen as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tommy McMillen a 60% chance to beat Alberto Montes (Alberto Montes 40%).
The betting market prices Alberto Montes at 41% (+131) and Tommy McMillen at 59% (-162), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tommy McMillen than the bookmakers: 35% for Alberto Montes against the market's 41%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Montes's grappling may struggle against McMillen's striking power, which boasts a higher finish rate and could exploit any openings.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 48%, submission 36%, decision 16%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 16%.
Key factors
- Montes's grappling advantage
- McMillen's striking power
- Both have elite defenses
Tale of the tape
| Alberto Montes | Tommy McMillen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 3-0 |
| Age | 32 | 29 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 3 |
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