Christian Leroy Duncan vs Roman Dolidze: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026

Result

Christian Leroy Duncan defeated Roman Dolidze by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Christian Leroy Duncan as the favourite at 63%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Christian Leroy Duncan a 63% chance to beat Roman Dolidze (Roman Dolidze 37%).

The betting market prices Christian Leroy Duncan at 78% (-463) and Roman Dolidze at 22% (+330), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Roman Dolidze than the bookmakers: 53% for Christian Leroy Duncan against the market's 78%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Duncan's striking power and defensive metrics should exploit Dolidze's limited defense, while Dolidze's cardio could keep him competitive in a high-paced bout.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 45%, KO/TKO 43%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 45%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 64%.

Key factors

• Duncan's striking power
• Dolidze's cardio advantage
• Duncan's defensive prowess

Tale of the tape

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