Lucas Brennan vs Francis Marshall: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Francis Marshall defeated Lucas Brennan by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Francis Marshall as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Francis Marshall a 67% chance to beat Lucas Brennan (Lucas Brennan 33%).
The betting market prices Lucas Brennan at 20% (+380) and Francis Marshall at 80% (-564), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Lucas Brennan than the bookmakers: 41% for Lucas Brennan against the market's 20%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Marshall riding a wave of momentum and grappling prowess, he'll need to avoid Brennan's KO power while dictating the pace to secure a decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, submission 29%, KO/TKO 25%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 76%, over 2.5 rounds 63%.
Key factors
- Marshall grappling control advantage
- Brennan KO threat on feet
- Marshall recent momentum edge
Tale of the tape
| Lucas Brennan | Francis Marshall | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 7 |
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