Bogdan Guskov vs Magomed Ankalaev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · July 25, 2026
Result
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO in round 5 (2:41) at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Magomed Ankalaev as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Magomed Ankalaev a 67% chance to beat Bogdan Guskov (Bogdan Guskov 33%).
The betting market prices Bogdan Guskov at 19% (+389) and Magomed Ankalaev at 81% (-578), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Bogdan Guskov than the bookmakers: 41% for Bogdan Guskov against the market's 19%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Matchup Patterns (34%) drives Ankalaev's 59% edge — Guskov's counter-strategy starts with neutralizing that.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 42%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 5-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 58%.
Key factors
- Bogdan Guskov matchup patterns advantage
- Magomed Ankalaev experience factor advantage
- Magomed Ankalaev grappling control advantage
Tale of the tape
| Bogdan Guskov | Magomed Ankalaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 13-2 |
| Age | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 6'2" (188 cm) | 6'3" (191 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 15 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.