Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Jim Miller defeated Jared Gordon by Submission in round 1 (3:29) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Jim Miller at only 42%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jared Gordon a 58% chance to beat Jim Miller (Jim Miller 42%).
The betting market prices Jared Gordon at 71% (-297) and Jim Miller at 29% (+223), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jim Miller than the bookmakers: 49% for Jared Gordon against the market's 71%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of experience versus output, Gordon's striking volume could shake up the octagon, but Miller's savvy grappling and relentless pressure might just steal the show.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 49%, KO/TKO 28%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 49%, over 1.5 rounds 82%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Gordon striking volume advantage
- Miller's experience in pressure moments
- Gordon grappling control potential
Tale of the tape
| Jared Gordon | Jim Miller | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-8 | 28-18 |
| Age | 38 | 43 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 17 | 46 |
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