Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes: Result and Prediction
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
Result
Curtis Blaydes defeated Waldo Cortes Acosta by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Curtis Blaydes at only 48%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Waldo Cortes Acosta a 52% chance to beat Curtis Blaydes (Curtis Blaydes 48%).
The betting market prices Waldo Cortes Acosta at 64% (-203) and Curtis Blaydes at 36% (+162), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Curtis Blaydes than the bookmakers: 43% for Waldo Cortes Acosta against the market's 64%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Blaydes brings elite grappling and experience to the octagon against Acosta's rising striking volume and momentum, making this heavyweight showdown a potential game-changer.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 47%, decision 42%, submission 11%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 57%.
Key factors
- Blaydes grappling control advantage
- Acosta striking volume edge
- Blaydes cardio superiority
Tale of the tape
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | Curtis Blaydes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 15-6 |
| Age | – | 36 |
| Height | – | 6'4" (193 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 21 |
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