Sam Patterson vs Michael Page: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026

Result

Michael Page defeated Sam Patterson by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Michael Page as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Michael Page a 53% chance to beat Sam Patterson (Sam Patterson 47%).

The betting market prices Sam Patterson at 37% (+155) and Michael Page at 63% (-193), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Sam Patterson than the bookmakers: 55% for Sam Patterson against the market's 37%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Patterson's grappling dominance and recent form could exploit Page's limited takedown defense, while Page's striking accuracy must overcome Patterson's heavy hands and submission threat.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 51%, KO/TKO 28%, submission 22%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 51%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 67%.

Key factors

• Patterson's grappling edge
• Page's defensive prowess
• Patterson's recent form

Tale of the tape

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