Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Brandon Royval defeated Lone'er Kavanagh by Submission in round 3 (3:40) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Brandon Royval at only 43%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Lone'er Kavanagh a 57% chance to beat Brandon Royval (Brandon Royval 43%).
The betting market prices Lone'er Kavanagh at 65% (-218) and Brandon Royval at 35% (+173), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Brandon Royval than the bookmakers: 54% for Lone'er Kavanagh against the market's 65%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Kavanagh riding a wave of momentum and grappling prowess, he faces Royval’s striking volume and UFC experience, setting the stage for a thrilling clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, submission 22%, KO/TKO 22%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Kavanagh grappling control advantage
- Royval striking volume edge
- Kavanagh defensive metrics superiority
Tale of the tape
| Lone'er Kavanagh | Brandon Royval | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 8-5 |
| Age | 27 | 34 |
| Height | 5'4" (163 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 5 | 13 |
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