Victor Valenzuela vs Max Griffin: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Victor Valenzuela defeated Max Griffin by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Victor Valenzuela as the favourite at 52%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Victor Valenzuela a 52% chance to beat Max Griffin (Max Griffin 48%).
The betting market prices Victor Valenzuela at 56% (-143) and Max Griffin at 44% (+116), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Max Griffin than the bookmakers: 45% for Victor Valenzuela against the market's 56%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Valenzuela's explosive KO power meets Griffin's seasoned defense, making this a clash of raw talent against tactical resilience in the octagon.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 39%, submission 7%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%.
Key factors
- Valenzuela's KO power
- Griffin's defensive skills
- Griffin's fight experience
Tale of the tape
| Victor Valenzuela | Max Griffin | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 8-11 |
| Age | 32 | 41 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 19 |
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