Jeremy Stephens vs King Green: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
King Green defeated Jeremy Stephens by Submission in round 1 (4:20) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had King Green as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave King Green a 64% chance to beat Jeremy Stephens (Jeremy Stephens 36%).
The betting market prices Jeremy Stephens at 24% (+297) and King Green at 76% (-419), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jeremy Stephens than the bookmakers: 41% for Jeremy Stephens against the market's 24%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of contrasting trajectories, Green's defensive prowess and recent form may exploit Stephens' declining momentum and grappling limitations.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 50%, KO/TKO 36%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 50%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 66%.
Key factors
- Green's defensive edge
- Stephens' cardio advantage
- Green's recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Jeremy Stephens | King Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-20 | 4-2 |
| Age | 40 | 40 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 35 | 6 |
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