Marco Tulio vs Roman Kopylov: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Roman Kopylov defeated Marco Tulio by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Roman Kopylov at only 44%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Marco Tulio a 56% chance to beat Roman Kopylov (Roman Kopylov 44%).
The betting market prices Marco Tulio at 62% (-191) and Roman Kopylov at 38% (+152), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Roman Kopylov than the bookmakers: 52% for Marco Tulio against the market's 62%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Tulio's striking power and defensive acumen clash with Kopylov's knockout threat, making this a pivotal matchup for both fighters' careers amid their current losing streaks.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 48%, decision 39%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 59%.
Key factors
- Tulio's striking power
- Kopylov's KO threat
- Tulio's defensive skills
Tale of the tape
| Marco Tulio | Roman Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 7-5 |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 12 |
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