Tom Nolan vs Fares Ziam: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · June 6, 2026
Result
Tom Nolan defeated Fares Ziam by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (05:00:00) at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tom Nolan at only 37%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Fares Ziam a 63% chance to beat Tom Nolan (Tom Nolan 37%).
The betting market prices Tom Nolan at 28% (+240) and Fares Ziam at 72% (-316), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tom Nolan than the bookmakers: 41% for Tom Nolan against the market's 28%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Ziam riding a momentum-boosting winning streak and his elite defensive skills, he faces Nolan, whose striking volume may not be enough to overcome Ziam’s cardio advantage in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 56%, KO/TKO 28%, submission 16%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 56%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 72%.
Key factors
- Nolan striking volume advantage
- Ziam grappling control edge
- Ziam cardio superiority late
Tale of the tape
| Tom Nolan | Fares Ziam | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 8-4 |
| Age | 26 | 30 |
| Height | 6'2" (188 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 12 |
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