John Garza vs Farid Basharat: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Farid Basharat defeated John Garza by Decision in round 3 at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Farid Basharat as the favourite at 70%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Farid Basharat a 70% chance to beat John Garza (John Garza 30%).
The betting market prices John Garza at 17% (+445) and Farid Basharat at 83% (-693), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on John Garza than the bookmakers: 39% for John Garza against the market's 17%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In this matchup, Basharat's momentum from a winning streak and his grappling control could easily overwhelm Garza, who needs to find a way to turn the tide in his favor.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Basharat grappling control advantage
- Basharat striking power edge
- Basharat momentum from winning streak
Tale of the tape
| John Garza | Farid Basharat | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 7-0 |
| Age | 24 | 29 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 7 |
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