Murtazali Magomedov vs Melsik Baghdasaryan: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Murtazali Magomedov defeated Melsik Baghdasaryan by Submission in round 1 (01:17:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Murtazali Magomedov as the favourite at 57%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Murtazali Magomedov a 57% chance to beat Melsik Baghdasaryan (Melsik Baghdasaryan 43%).
The betting market prices Murtazali Magomedov at 73% (-345) and Melsik Baghdasaryan at 27% (+256), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Melsik Baghdasaryan than the bookmakers: 45% for Murtazali Magomedov against the market's 73%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Magomedov’s grappling prowess set to clash against Baghdasaryan's striking volume, this matchup teeters on whether control or chaos will reign supreme in the octagon.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 30%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 74%.
Key factors
- Magomedov grappling control advantage
- Magomedov defensive edge in striking
- Baghdasaryan striking volume threat
Tale of the tape
| Murtazali Magomedov | Melsik Baghdasaryan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 3-3 |
| Age | 27 | 35 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 6 |
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