Louie Sutherland vs Tai Tuivasa: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Louie Sutherland defeated Tai Tuivasa by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Louie Sutherland at only 39%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tai Tuivasa a 61% chance to beat Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland 39%).
The betting market prices Louie Sutherland at 37% (+157) and Tai Tuivasa at 63% (-195), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Sutherland's explosive KO potential clashes with Tuivasa's seasoned defense, making this matchup a compelling test of striking versus resilience amid Tuivasa's recent slump.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 67%, decision 29%, submission 4%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 29%.
Key factors
- Sutherland's KO threat
- Tuivasa's defensive edge
- Tuivasa's experience advantage
Tale of the tape
| Louie Sutherland | Tai Tuivasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 8-11 |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 6'3" (191 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 19 |
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