Alexa Grasso vs Manon Fiorot: Result and Prediction
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
Result
Alexa Grasso defeated Manon Fiorot by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alexa Grasso at only 39%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Manon Fiorot a 61% chance to beat Alexa Grasso (Alexa Grasso 39%).
The betting market prices Alexa Grasso at 32% (+198) and Manon Fiorot at 68% (-257), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Alexa Grasso than the bookmakers: 40% for Alexa Grasso against the market's 32%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Fiorot's grappling prowess and striking volume against Grasso's experience, this clash will test whether Grasso can absorb pressure and capitalize on any openings.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 28%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 74%.
Key factors
- Fiorot grappling control advantage
- Fiorot striking volume edge
- Grasso experience may stabilize fight
Tale of the tape
| Alexa Grasso | Manon Fiorot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-5 | 8-2 |
| Age | 33 | 37 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 15 | 10 |
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