Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Mario Bautista defeated Cory Sandhagen by Decision in round 3 at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mario Bautista at only 44%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Cory Sandhagen a 56% chance to beat Mario Bautista (Mario Bautista 44%).
The betting market prices Mario Bautista at 44% (+115) and Cory Sandhagen at 56% (-140), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Bautista’s grappling prowess and striking volume clashing against Sandhagen’s elite cardio and experience, this fight could turn into a battle of attrition or a striking showcase.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 50%, KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 50%, over 1.5 rounds 79%, over 2.5 rounds 64%.
Key factors
- Bautista grappling edge on the ground
- Sandhagen cardio advantage in later rounds
- Bautista striking volume can overwhelm
Tale of the tape
| Mario Bautista | Cory Sandhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 15 | 17 |
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