Themba Gorimbo vs Jonathan Micallef: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Jonathan Micallef defeated Themba Gorimbo by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Jonathan Micallef as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jonathan Micallef a 64% chance to beat Themba Gorimbo (Themba Gorimbo 36%).
The betting market prices Themba Gorimbo at 31% (+206) and Jonathan Micallef at 69% (-270), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Themba Gorimbo than the bookmakers: 42% for Themba Gorimbo against the market's 31%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Gorimbo's elite wrestling faces Micallef's striking volume and submission threat, setting the stage for a tactical battle with potential for a finish from either side.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 46%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 46%.
Key factors
- Gorimbo's grappling control
- Micallef's striking volume
- Submission threat from Micallef
Tale of the tape
| Themba Gorimbo | Jonathan Micallef | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 3-0 |
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 3 |
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