Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
Result
Mateusz Rebecki defeated Kyle Prepolec by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:41) at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on August 1, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mateusz Rebecki as the favourite at 73%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mateusz Rebecki a 73% chance to beat Kyle Prepolec (Kyle Prepolec 27%).
The betting market prices Kyle Prepolec at 17% (+451) and Mateusz Rebecki at 83% (-714), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Kyle Prepolec than the bookmakers: 33% for Kyle Prepolec against the market's 17%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Rebecki's striking volume and grappling skill set on full display, Prepolec's best shot may be a desperate takedown, but it won't be easy against such an all-around threat.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 76%.
Key factors
- Rebecki striking volume advantage
- Rebecki grappling control edge
- Prepolec takedown pressure potential
Tale of the tape
| Kyle Prepolec | Mateusz Rebecki | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 5-4 |
| Age | 37 | 34 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 5 | 9 |
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