Marcio Barbosa vs Dennis Buzukja: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · April 18, 2026
Result
Marcio Barbosa defeated Dennis Buzukja by KO/TKO in round 1 (1:20) at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Marcio Barbosa as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Marcio Barbosa a 59% chance to beat Dennis Buzukja (Dennis Buzukja 41%).
The betting market prices Marcio Barbosa at 79% (-516) and Dennis Buzukja at 21% (+356), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Dennis Buzukja than the bookmakers: 44% for Marcio Barbosa against the market's 79%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Buzukja's striking power clashes with Barbosa's defensive prowess, but recent momentum could tilt the scales in Barbosa's favor as both fighters seek a decisive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 51%, KO/TKO 26%, submission 22%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 51%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 72%.
Key factors
- Buzukja's KO threat
- Barbosa's defensive skills
- Recent momentum for Barbosa
Tale of the tape
| Marcio Barbosa | Dennis Buzukja | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-5 |
| Age | 28 | 29 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 6 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.