Steven Asplund vs Vitor Petrino: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · March 14, 2026
Result
Vitor Petrino defeated Steven Asplund by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Vitor Petrino as the favourite at 56%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Vitor Petrino a 56% chance to beat Steven Asplund (Steven Asplund 44%).
The betting market prices Steven Asplund at 33% (+188) and Vitor Petrino at 67% (-232), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Steven Asplund than the bookmakers: 51% for Steven Asplund against the market's 33%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Asplund's explosive striking and Petrino's relentless grappling, this matchup promises a clash of styles where one misstep could lead to a quick finish or a grueling decision battle.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 33%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 47%.
Key factors
- Asplund striking volume advantage
- Petrino grappling control potential
- Asplund recent form momentum
Tale of the tape
| Steven Asplund | Vitor Petrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 8-2 |
| Age | 28 | 29 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'3" (191 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 10 |
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