Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott: Result and Prediction
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
Result
Tim Elliott defeated Edgar Chairez by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tim Elliott at only 48%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Edgar Chairez a 52% chance to beat Tim Elliott (Tim Elliott 48%).
The betting market prices Edgar Chairez at 65% (-223) and Tim Elliott at 35% (+173), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tim Elliott than the bookmakers: 41% for Edgar Chairez against the market's 65%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and grappling prowess will clash with Chairez's momentum-fueled confidence, making this a battle of experience versus recent success in the Octagon.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, submission 30%, KO/TKO 16%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 74%.
Key factors
- Elliott grappling control advantage
- Chairez recent form momentum
- Elliott striking power edge
Tale of the tape
| Edgar Chairez | Tim Elliott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 11-12 |
| Age | 31 | 40 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 23 |
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