Damien Anderson vs Ezra Elliott: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Ezra Elliott defeated Damien Anderson by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ezra Elliott at only 42%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Damien Anderson a 58% chance to beat Ezra Elliott (Ezra Elliott 42%).
The betting market prices Damien Anderson at 55% (-141) and Ezra Elliott at 45% (+112), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Damien Anderson than the bookmakers: 65% for Damien Anderson against the market's 55%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Anderson's elite grappling and submission skills could exploit Elliott's recent struggles, leading to a potential finish as the fight progresses.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 46%, KO/TKO 29%, decision 25%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 25%.
Key factors
- Anderson's submission threat
- Elliott's recent struggles
- Anderson's grappling control
Tale of the tape
| Damien Anderson | Ezra Elliott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Age | 30 | 26 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 1 |
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