Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Christian Leroy Duncan defeated Jared Cannonier by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Christian Leroy Duncan as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Christian Leroy Duncan a 67% chance to beat Jared Cannonier (Jared Cannonier 33%).
The betting market prices Christian Leroy Duncan at 74% (-365) and Jared Cannonier at 26% (+270), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jared Cannonier than the bookmakers: 66% for Christian Leroy Duncan against the market's 74%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Duncan's momentum and striking precision clash with Cannonier's defensive resilience, creating a compelling showdown where the rising star looks to capitalize on his opponent's recent struggles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 45%, decision 43%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 76%, over 2.5 rounds 61%.
Key factors
- Duncan striking precision advantage
- Cannonier defensive skills resilience
- Duncan cardio advantage in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Christian Leroy Duncan | Jared Cannonier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-2 | 11-10 |
| Age | 31 | 42 |
| Height | 6'2" (188 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 21 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.