Punahele Soriano vs Daniil Donchenko: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · September 5, 2026
Result
Daniil Donchenko defeated Punahele Soriano by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Daniil Donchenko as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Daniil Donchenko a 61% chance to beat Punahele Soriano (Punahele Soriano 39%).
The betting market prices Punahele Soriano at 33% (+191) and Daniil Donchenko at 67% (-248), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Punahele Soriano than the bookmakers: 48% for Punahele Soriano against the market's 33%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Soriano's robust defense and recent momentum face off against Donchenko's elite striking and knockout threat, making for a compelling matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 51%, decision 42%, submission 7%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%.
Key factors
- Donchenko's KO power
- Soriano's defensive skills
- Recent win streak for Soriano
Tale of the tape
| Punahele Soriano | Daniil Donchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-5 | 4-0 |
| Age | 34 | 25 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 12 | 4 |
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