Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026

Result

Noah Gugnon defeated Milos Janicic by Submission in round 1 (1:21) at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on August 1, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Noah Gugnon at only 49%, so this was an upset against the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Milos Janicic a 51% chance to beat Noah Gugnon (Noah Gugnon 49%).

The betting market prices Noah Gugnon at 51% (-117) and Milos Janicic at 49% (-104), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Milos Janicic than the bookmakers: 45% for Noah Gugnon against the market's 51%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

With both fighters boasting high finish rates and overlapping striking styles, this matchup is set to be a thrilling clash between Gugnon's relentless offense and Janicic's grappling edge.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 58%, submission 27%, decision 15%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.

Fight length: goes the distance 15%.

Tale of the tape

The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.