Kyle Nelson vs Terrance McKinney: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Terrance McKinney defeated Kyle Nelson by KO/TKO in round 1 (0:24) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Terrance McKinney as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Terrance McKinney a 60% chance to beat Kyle Nelson (Kyle Nelson 40%).
The betting market prices Kyle Nelson at 38% (+149) and Terrance McKinney at 62% (-185), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With McKinney's grappling prowess and higher KO threat, he looks to exploit Nelson's weaknesses and secure a decisive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 41%, KO/TKO 37%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 41%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 60%.
Key factors
- McKinney's grappling edge
- Nelson's defensive strength
- Recent form favors McKinney
Tale of the tape
| Kyle Nelson | Terrance McKinney | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-6 | 8-6 |
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 11 | 14 |
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