Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel Wood: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · September 5, 2026
Result
Pavel Andrusca defeated Nathaniel Wood by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Pavel Andrusca at only 34%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Nathaniel Wood a 66% chance to beat Pavel Andrusca (Pavel Andrusca 34%).
The betting market prices Pavel Andrusca at 28% (+233) and Nathaniel Wood at 72% (-321), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Pavel Andrusca than the bookmakers: 41% for Pavel Andrusca against the market's 28%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Wood's experience and recent form may exploit Andrusca's inexperience, potentially leading to a finish via strikes or decision.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 45%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 45%.
Key factors
- Wood's experience advantage
- Andrusca's grappling strength
- Recent win streak for Wood
Tale of the tape
| Pavel Andrusca | Nathaniel Wood | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 11-4 |
| Age | 24 | 33 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 15 |
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