Stewart Nicoll vs Alden Coria: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · July 18, 2026
Result
Alden Coria defeated Stewart Nicoll by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alden Coria as the favourite at 78%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alden Coria a 78% chance to beat Stewart Nicoll (Stewart Nicoll 22%).
The betting market prices Stewart Nicoll at 13% (+615) and Alden Coria at 87% (-1111), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Stewart Nicoll than the bookmakers: 35% for Stewart Nicoll against the market's 13%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Coria's striking power and elite defense will likely exploit Nicoll's weaknesses, leading to a potential finish in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 47%, decision 35%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 35%.
Key factors
- Coria's striking power
- Coria's elite defense
- Nicoll's limited cardio
Tale of the tape
| Stewart Nicoll | Alden Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 3 |
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