Mark Vologdin vs John Castaneda: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · April 18, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave John Castaneda a 54% chance to beat Mark Vologdin (Mark Vologdin 46%).
The betting market prices Mark Vologdin at 47% (+103) and John Castaneda at 53% (-128), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Castaneda's experience and cardio may outlast Vologdin's striking, but the latter's submission threat could turn the tide in this intriguing matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 39%, KO/TKO 38%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round catch weight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%.
Key factors
- Castaneda's cardio advantage
- Vologdin's submission potential
- Castaneda's UFC experience
Tale of the tape
| Mark Vologdin | John Castaneda | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1-1 | 4-4 |
| Age | 26 | 35 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 8 |
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