Polyana Viana vs Alice Ardelean: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Alice Ardelean defeated Polyana Viana by Submission in round 2 (4:36) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alice Ardelean as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alice Ardelean a 61% chance to beat Polyana Viana (Polyana Viana 39%).
The betting market prices Polyana Viana at 35% (+169) and Alice Ardelean at 65% (-215), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Polyana Viana than the bookmakers: 41% for Polyana Viana against the market's 35%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Ardelean's elite cardio and striking volume may overwhelm Viana, who struggles to find success amidst a three-fight skid and limited striking output.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, submission 26%, KO/TKO 22%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Ardelean's striking volume
- Viana's grappling threat
- Recent form advantage
Tale of the tape
| Polyana Viana | Alice Ardelean | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-8 | 3-2 |
| Age | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'3" (160 cm) |
| UFC fights | 12 | 5 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.