Tofiq Musayev vs Ignacio Bahamondes: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Tofiq Musayev defeated Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tofiq Musayev at only 34%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ignacio Bahamondes a 66% chance to beat Tofiq Musayev (Tofiq Musayev 34%).
The betting market prices Tofiq Musayev at 31% (+213) and Ignacio Bahamondes at 69% (-265), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tofiq Musayev than the bookmakers: 39% for Tofiq Musayev against the market's 31%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Bahamondes' striking precision and cardio should exploit Musayev's inexperience, potentially leading to a finish in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 46%, decision 39%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%.
Key factors
- Bahamondes' striking accuracy
- Musayev's defensive capabilities
- Bahamondes' cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Tofiq Musayev | Ignacio Bahamondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 7-4 |
| Age | 37 | 29 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 6'1" (185 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 11 |
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