Cody Durden vs Jafel Filho: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Cody Durden defeated Jafel Filho by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Cody Durden at only 31%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jafel Filho a 69% chance to beat Cody Durden (Cody Durden 31%).
The betting market prices Cody Durden at 18% (+437) and Jafel Filho at 82% (-700), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Cody Durden than the bookmakers: 40% for Cody Durden against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
This clash pits Durden's elite grappling against Filho's refined skill set and recent momentum, making it a thrilling battle between ground control and tactical striking.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 46%, submission 34%, KO/TKO 20%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 46%, over 1.5 rounds 76%, over 2.5 rounds 63%.
Key factors
- Durden grappling control advantage
- Filho recent form momentum
- Durden striking volume edge
Tale of the tape
| Cody Durden | Jafel Filho | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-9 | 3-3 |
| Age | 36 | 33 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 16 | 6 |
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