Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield: Result and Prediction
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · September 19, 2026
Result
Alonzo Menifield defeated Iwo Baraniewski by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on September 19, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alonzo Menifield at only 26%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Iwo Baraniewski a 74% chance to beat Alonzo Menifield (Alonzo Menifield 26%).
The betting market prices Iwo Baraniewski at 67% (-246) and Alonzo Menifield at 33% (+192), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Iwo Baraniewski than the bookmakers: 74% for Iwo Baraniewski against the market's 67%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Baraniewski's elite striking and defensive skills could exploit Menifield's grappling weaknesses, leading to a potential knockout finish in this matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 64%, decision 24%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 24%, over 1.5 rounds 66%, over 2.5 rounds 48%.
Key factors
- Baraniewski's striking power
- Menifield's grappling weaknesses
- Recent form favors Baraniewski
Tale of the tape
| Iwo Baraniewski | Alonzo Menifield | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 12-6 |
| Age | 28 | 39 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 18 |
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