Tresean Gore vs Azamat Bekoev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
Result
Tresean Gore defeated Azamat Bekoev by Submission in round 3 (3:27) at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tresean Gore at only 31%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Azamat Bekoev a 69% chance to beat Tresean Gore (Tresean Gore 31%).
The betting market prices Tresean Gore at 18% (+437) and Azamat Bekoev at 82% (-680), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tresean Gore than the bookmakers: 41% for Tresean Gore against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Gore's grappling may neutralize Bekoev's striking power, but the latter's knockout threat looms large in this pivotal matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 42%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 25%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%, over 1.5 rounds 74%, over 2.5 rounds 61%.
Key factors
- Gore's grappling control
- Bekoev's striking power
- Cardio concerns for both
Tale of the tape
| Tresean Gore | Azamat Bekoev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Age | 32 | 31 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 4 |
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