Christian Edwards vs Modestas Bukauskas: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Modestas Bukauskas defeated Christian Edwards by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Modestas Bukauskas as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Modestas Bukauskas a 65% chance to beat Christian Edwards (Christian Edwards 35%).
The betting market prices Christian Edwards at 27% (+254) and Modestas Bukauskas at 73% (-341), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Christian Edwards than the bookmakers: 41% for Christian Edwards against the market's 27%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Edwards' knockout power clashing against Bukauskas' recent momentum, this matchup promises fireworks as both fighters look to prove their resilience and adaptability inside the cage.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 42%, KO/TKO 39%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 59%.
Key factors
- Edwards striking power advantage
- Edwards elite defensive skills
- Bukauskas recent form edge
Tale of the tape
| Christian Edwards | Modestas Bukauskas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 9-5 |
| Age | 28 | 33 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'3" (191 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 14 |
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