Luis Gurule vs Rei Tsuruya: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Result
Rei Tsuruya defeated Luis Gurule by Submission in round 1 (03:19:00) at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo on May 30, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Rei Tsuruya as the favourite at 69%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rei Tsuruya a 69% chance to beat Luis Gurule (Luis Gurule 31%).
The betting market prices Luis Gurule at 27% (+251) and Rei Tsuruya at 73% (-340), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Luis Gurule than the bookmakers: 35% for Luis Gurule against the market's 27%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Tsuruya's grappling dominance and striking power exploit Gurule's defensive vulnerabilities, likely leading to a finish via submission or knockout.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 40%, KO/TKO 30%, decision 30%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 30%.
Key factors
- Tsuruya's grappling control
- Striking power differential
- Gurule's limited defense
Tale of the tape
| Luis Gurule | Rei Tsuruya | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Age | 33 | 24 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 5 | 4 |
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