Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon Prediction, Odds and Pick
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · November 14, 2026
Who wins Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon?
FIGHT//AI gives Melquizael Costa a 70% chance to beat Jared Gordon, who is at 30%. The headline number blends our machine-learning model with the betting market and fan sentiment.
The betting market prices Melquizael Costa at 77% (-424) and Jared Gordon at 23% (+305), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jared Gordon than the bookmakers: 66% for Melquizael Costa against the market's 77%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Gordon's elite grappling and striking volume up against Costa’s rising momentum and cardio, this fight could turn into a battle of experience versus youthful resurgence.
How the fight ends
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 33%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%, over 1.5 rounds 81%, over 2.5 rounds 69%.
Key factors
- Gordon striking volume advantage
- Costa's cardio edge late
- Gordon grappling control potential
Tale of the tape
| Melquizael Costa | Jared Gordon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 9-8 |
| Age | 30 | 38 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 17 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.