Charles Johnson vs Asu Almabayev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · June 27, 2026
Result
Asu Almabayev defeated Charles Johnson by Submission in round 3 (03:33:00) at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres on June 27, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Asu Almabayev as the favourite at 63%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Asu Almabayev a 63% chance to beat Charles Johnson (Charles Johnson 37%).
The betting market prices Charles Johnson at 31% (+207) and Asu Almabayev at 69% (-269), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Charles Johnson than the bookmakers: 40% for Charles Johnson against the market's 31%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Johnson's striking volume potentially clashing with Almabayev's grappling dominance, this bout promises a thrilling battle of stand-up fireworks versus ground control in a clash of cage experience versus relentless pressure.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 78%.
Key factors
- Johnson striking volume advantage
- Almabayev grappling control
- Almabayev cardio edge in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Charles Johnson | Asu Almabayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-7 | 6-1 |
| Age | 36 | 32 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'4" (163 cm) |
| UFC fights | 16 | 7 |
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