Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Alexa Grasso defeated Maycee Barber by KO/TKO in round 1 (2:42) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alexa Grasso at only 41%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Maycee Barber a 59% chance to beat Alexa Grasso (Alexa Grasso 41%).
The betting market prices Maycee Barber at 62% (-186) and Alexa Grasso at 38% (+150), with the bookmaker margin removed.
In a clash of styles, Barber's knockout potential and elite cardio may overwhelm Grasso, whose defensive prowess will be tested against a relentless attack.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Barber's striking power
- Grasso's defensive skills
- Barber's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Maycee Barber | Alexa Grasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3 | 10-5 |
| Age | 28 | 33 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 13 | 15 |
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