Losene Keita vs Nathaniel Wood: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Nathaniel Wood defeated Losene Keita by Decision - Split in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Nathaniel Wood at only 41%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Losene Keita a 59% chance to beat Nathaniel Wood (Nathaniel Wood 41%).
The betting market prices Losene Keita at 68% (-263) and Nathaniel Wood at 32% (+200), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Nathaniel Wood than the bookmakers: 43% for Losene Keita against the market's 68%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Wood's experience and cardio may outlast Keita's striking prowess, leading to a potential finish or decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 8%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%.
Key factors
- Wood's cardio advantage
- Keita's elite defense
- Wood's experience edge
Tale of the tape
| Losene Keita | Nathaniel Wood | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 11-4 |
| Age | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 15 |
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