Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes: Result and Prediction
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · June 14, 2026
Result
Diego Lopes defeated Steve Garcia by KO/TKO in round 2 (02:42:00) at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje on June 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Diego Lopes as the favourite at 51%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Diego Lopes a 51% chance to beat Steve Garcia (Steve Garcia 49%).
The betting market prices Steve Garcia at 42% (+126) and Diego Lopes at 58% (-156), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Steve Garcia than the bookmakers: 54% for Steve Garcia against the market's 42%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Garcia's knockout threat looms large as Lopes seeks to outlast him with superior cardio and defensive skills amidst their contrasting fight trajectories.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 48%, decision 39%, submission 13%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%, over 1.5 rounds 72%, over 2.5 rounds 56%.
Key factors
- Garcia's striking power
- Lopes' cardio advantage
- Defensive resilience
Tale of the tape
| Steve Garcia | Diego Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 11 | 10 |
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