Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · October 10, 2026
Result
Francisco Prado defeated Ismael Bonfim at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on October 10, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Francisco Prado as the favourite at 52%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Francisco Prado a 52% chance to beat Ismael Bonfim (Ismael Bonfim 48%).
The betting market prices Ismael Bonfim at 46% (+108) and Francisco Prado at 54% (-134), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Bonfim's striking volume and defensive prowess against Prado's recent losing streak, this matchup has all the makings of a tactical clinic that could wear down the underdog.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 39%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 76%, over 2.5 rounds 63%.
Key factors
- Bonfim striking volume advantage
- Bonfim defensive edge
- Bonfim cardio advantage in later rounds
Tale of the tape
| Ismael Bonfim | Francisco Prado | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Age | 31 | 24 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 6 |
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